Can the BJP represent the nation again?

I supported the BJP in 2014, was neutral in 2019 but I am not sure if I would want to support them in 2024. After talking to a lot of people, after reading a lot of articles, after analysing a lot of things, and most importantly after realizing that whatever I am calling a lot is actually not a lot, here is my take on the current state of affairs in our country.

As I start writing, I very well realize that for every point of view, there is an equal and opposite view. Any stand I take is going to be based on limited information. But then not taking a stand is not necessarily the right thing all the time, especially in a democracy. So here is my stand, and I will be happy to come back to this later and realize how foolish I was.

The dream that was sold and was on track

2014 was all about Modi. A decisive leader with a good track record, striking the right chords, talking about economy, talking about India becoming a superpower, talking about the dreams of a billion people. He went beyond what he talked, and started ambitious projects like house for all, power for all, bathrooms for all, gas connection for all, bank account for all - I was truly impressed like the many who watched him in awe. Unprecedented crackdown on black money, busting of promotion rackets, getting accountability into bureaucracy, he was all over. Talk to bureaucrats and they will tell you how the PMO would call their landlines at sharp 9 am to check if they had checked in for the day. Thanks to falling global oil prices, inflation was under control. Ease of business rankings improved, and the new euphoria kept the markets happy

The U-Turns, some hasty moves and the usual repackaging

Post the UP elections or may be during that period, the priorities slowly started changing. This also coincided with Amit Shah taking centre stage, may be that was always the plan.

When Modi announced demonetization in 2016 at the peak of festive and wedding season overruling RBI recommendations, he would certainly not have anticipated that it would go on to trigger the downfall of the great Indian economy. Thousands of small businesses that had to suspend operations then haven’t recovered yet. From curbing terrorism, to curbing black money, to aiding digital payments, the goal posts shifted until some right-wing economist had to make an analysis about how real estate prices have fallen because of demonetization. Just that it couldn’t rise after that.

I was still giving the benefit of doubt to the BJP on this, until I saw reports going around that the money spent on elections by all parties have now almost halved across the country, but that of the BJP has almost doubled. Can you refute this? You cannot, because there is no transparency in political donations or election spending. Something that Modi had promised, only to do the exact opposite after assuming power by making corporate funding anonymous. May be the only thing that demonetization achieved was to flush out money from all political parties, which in itself was a great achievement. Except that the BJP “somehow” escaped! Was that the only motive then? The BJP had opposed demonetization while in opposition citing it was anti-poor, when Congress proposed a much less severe move of demonetizing old currency notes. And that was just one of the U-turns the BJP made. Bringing back black money from foreign accounts, restrictions on Govt ad spending, restrictions on FDI, concerns on Aadhar, campaigns against citizen surveillance - the BJP did a lot of U-turns that they will deny. The Congress will not accept its own U-turns either, GST for example. 

The BJP will say they changed a few important aspects of the GST and the Congress will say there hardly was any change. It is almost as if you need to oppose if you were in opposition and support if you were in power. Eventually, a Congress-created BJP-repackaged GST had to be rolled out hastily for the tax structure to stabilize before the elections of 2019. Nobody could help it, not even the opposition that claims this could have been done better. But GST was not the only repackaged scheme, the Congress will give a list of a two-dozen such schemes. Even the ambitious Smart Cities mission was a repackaged Urban Renewal Mission of the Congress. Oh, what happened to the 100 smart cities? Well, we have more important things to attend to right now, like religion.

The ghastly silence of the orator-in-chief possibly pointing at an incompetence

The Prime Minister who almost live tweets about his temple visits, his foreign trips, his election campaigns and global developments, notoriously stays silent on a lot of internal affairs. He does not talk about mob lynchings, which have supposedly and systematically increased. The Govt will say there is no increase, but will not quote numbers! The Prime Minister does not talk about farmer suicides any more. In fact, the Govt just stopped publishing official numbers on farmer suicides! And so did they stop publishing data on jobs, which apparently is at a 45-year low. The Prime Minister does not talk about the falling rupee any more. BJP supporters will tell you that this is because of the rising dollar! The Prime Minister does not talk about the rising fuel prices. BJP supporters will again talk about an irresistible economic theory to justify the historic high of the fuel prices! 

The Prime Minister does not talk about rising hunger levels or rising women crimes. From being in the 75th percentile of global hunger, we are now in the 87th percentile. From #4 in women crimes in 2013, we are now #1 across the world. GDP is almost forgotten. 2020 was supposed to be the year when India would surpass China’s economy, but we are 1/5^th of it today. Real GDP is in fact getting back to the 2008-09 downturn levels. The economy is in such a bad shape that a revolutionary move like corporate tax cut had to be played down by economists saying, "Why would you give money in the hands of millionaires when the common man is not spending?" The rarest press conference from the BJP on economy will talk about how Uber and Ola have slumped the sales of cars in the country. Just that there is no answer when asked about the falling truck sales. Only some honest people in the BJP like Subramanian Swamy will have the guts to say, “Get ready to say goodbye to Rs 5 trillion if no new economic policy is forthcoming. Neither boldness alone nor knowledge alone can save the economy from a crash. It needs both. Today we have neither.”

RBI, CBI, Judiciary – they were all in the media for wrong reasons. In fact, the media itself has been in the news for the wrong reasons.

But the BJP is silent on all of the above. Their silence takes prominence when you realize that these were all the exact same issues that they made a lot of hue and cry about, during their 2014 election campaign. The tweets of the then campaigner-in-chief, Mr. Modi will almost look like a perfect criticism to the current Govt if tweeted now, word-to-word.

Out of nowhere, the country is suddenly burning

When Modi 2.0 took over, people were expecting the Govt and its resources to be completely focused on the reeling economy, stalled business sectors, climbing inflation, the water and air crisis, stunted agriculture and neglected issues of education, healthcare and infrastructure. But all we saw in the first few months of the new Government are Kashmir, CAA and NRC. Out of nowhere, suddenly the country is burning. May be not really, only the BJP-ruled states are burning. Yes, the Government has every right to decide its priorities, but what is a Government that does not reflect people’s priorities?

While we were busy fighting over Gandhi and Patel, Jinnah slowly emerged as the father of our nation. His dream is almost a reality now. Just one more bill and a President's nod, the partition will be complete! #IndiaAgainstCorruption brought down the Congress. BJP’s detractors would like to believe that #IndiaForUnity will bring down the BJP. But can this juggernaut really be controlled now, even if the BJP wants to control?

We had months and months of protests for Nirbhaya. We had months and months of protests against corruption. We had months and months of protests against reservations. But violence was more an exception then. What has changed now? Subramanian Swamy, again being the honest guy that he is, says he is not too much concerned about the riots since this will result in Hindu vote consolidation. What? Does the BJP silently want the country to burn?

Loyalty is hard earned, can the BJP sustain it without a Balakot strike this time?

2019 is not the Modi we saw in 2014. 2019 is not the BJP that won elections in 2014. A general feeling has propped up that that this Govt has misplaced priorities, that the RSS and the BJP cadre fundamentally hate Muslims and the lower Hindu castes, that this Govt will block or manipulate all numbers to their advantage, that this Govt just talks, that this Govt can do anything to win elections. The latest protests on CAA and NRC is an example of this. The BJP can go on accusing the Congress or Left or Muslim organizations for these, but the fact that common citizens turned up in large numbers means the tide is turning. Numerous media polls in the last couple of weeks apparently sponsored by the BJP are backfiring. Not to mention the fact that the BJP has been losing state after state elections, much like how the Congress did, not long ago. Make no doubt, the Congress inspired its own "general feelings" as well and a good majority of Indians still don’t want to see the Congress again. But how did the BJP lose its goodwill so fast? Or have they?

Even with all the anger among BJP's voters because of dwindling economy and pieces of extreme Hindutva among other things, I think most will still vote for the BJP if elections were held now, because the BJP is still far ahead of anyone else. 

For more than four decades, the BJP was trying to establish its position against the Congress, but the nation was still loyal to the Congress then. And it's exactly the reverse now. People knew that demonetization was a botched-up attempt to curb black money, but they were able to see through the failure a possible good intent and voted the BJP Govt back to power, with even better numbers. NYAY is not that bad a scheme if offered along with removal of other subsidies, but then people were able to see through it one more Congress scheme that would end up in the vault of intermediaries.

Amidst all the achievements and controversies surrounding the BJP Govt, I think there is a subtle lesson here for all of us. That loyalty is hard to earn but is equally hard to disrupt. Sachin Tendulkar used to be someone like that. Towards the last few years of his career, even genuine fans of his were frustrated, but they would still turn on the television sets to see if he would make a century that game. And it took a decade for Virat Kohli to shift the loyalty towards him. Great vision, great product and great intent – even if it takes a long time to be bought in, is here to stay for a long time. Now that the BJP has that loyalty, it's up to them to manage the India of today and to create the India of tomorrow. 

Balakot or Bagalkot, if the BJP cannot represent each and every one of the 1+ billion people, they should just give the space for someone else to emerge. Party is always a distant second to the country, which shall and should always remain first!